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Economic slowdown leading to migration slowdown says ippr

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19 October 2008

The Institute for Public Policy Research (ippr) says that fewer migrants are arriving in the UK and more leaving the country. These trends, seen particularly amongst Poles and other citizens of the new EU member states, are likely to be accelerated by the economic slowdown.

Recent ippr research showed the number of new arrivals from new EU member states was 16 per cent lower in the first half of 2008 than 2007 and analysis of National Insurance number data shows that 25 per cent fewer National Insurance numbers were issued to all foreign nationals in comparison to the same period during 2007.

The leading progressive think tank says that the slowing of the British economy over the last year appears to have already impacted on migrant numbers and is likely to do so to a greater extent in the coming months:

The migration patterns of the three groups that have accounted for the vast majority of migrants to the UK over the last decade, migrants from the new EU member states, economic migrants from outside the EU and international students, are sensitive to economic conditions and less likely to come to the UK if there is an economic downturn.

The extent to which the UK will continue to attract and retain migrants will be influenced by its relative economic performance in comparison to migrants’ home countries and that of other countries competing to attract migrants. Migrants from new EU member states may be attracted home by economies that are continuing to grow or to other parts of Europe by the relative strength of the Euro in comparison to the Pound.

Even during a prolonged economic downturn, the UK will continue to need to attract migrants to work in certain key sectors that cannot be filled by British workers. For example some forms of seasonal agricultural work or very specialised professions may still require migrant workers. This will require a flexible immigration policy which allows the UK to attract and retain workers to keep certain economic sectors afloat during an economic downturn.

ippr Director of Strategy, Danny Sriskandarajah, said:

“There is a big question about whether migration will help or hinder the economy during the economic downturn. Early trends suggest that just as migration helps the economy on its way up, it may help on the way down by easing unemployment pressures. Even in a recession, the UK will need some migrant workers to work in certain sectors.

“This data demonstrates that immigration is self-regulating – migrants move to be able to be able to work and if job opportunities are not available or are not better than at home they simply will not come or will not stay.”

Contact

Kelly O’Sullivan, Media Officer, 020 7470 6125 / 07753 719 289 / k.osullivan@ippr.org

Catherine Bithell, Director of Communications, c.bithell@ippr.org / 020 7470 6106 / 07815 536 824