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UK can meet an 80 per cent CO2 target

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05 November 2007

The UK can cut its CO₂ emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 according to a new report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (ippr), WWF and the RSPB published today (Monday). The report says that the Government’s current target of 60 per cent cuts in CO₂ emissions by 2050 is inadequate because it is based on out-dated science and excludes the UK’s share of emissions from international aviation.

The research, published ahead of the second reading of the Climate Change Bill, includes emissions from international aviation, and applies environmental safeguards on the use of biofuels and wind energy. It also examines the implications of excluding new nuclear power.

According to the research, an 80 per cent cut in CO₂ by 2050 would mean a slow down in economic growth of 2-3 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). But the economy would still triple in size and reach the same level as it would on a business-as-usual scenario by spring 2052, less than two years later. In contrast, the Stern Review concluded that taking no action on the impacts of climate change could reduce global GDP by 5-20 per cent.

The research uses the same models that were used by the Government in the 2007 Energy Review and in Sir Nicholas Stern’s Review of the economics of climate change. These models say that the UK should be able to reduce its emissions by 80 per cent by 2050 through:

Switching to low-carbon technologies in the electricity sector through investing in wind power, biomass, hydro-electric and other renewables alongside a roll out of new Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies.
Reducing emissions from the production of heat through a programme of energy efficiency and moving to the use of low-carbon electricity for heating.
Improvements to surface transport emissions by greatly increased vehicle efficiency and moving towards use of advanced biofuels derived from sustainable sources.
Significantly constraining the growth in aviation. Without such action, it will be difficult or even impossible for the UK to achieve an 80 per cent emissions reduction.

Lisa Harker, ippr’s Co-Director, said:

“The Government’s current target for carbon reductions of 60 per cent by 2050 is inadequate. If we are to play our part in preventing dangerous climate change, we need to be aiming for 80 per cent. For this to be achieved we would need a radical shift in the pace and scale of investment in low carbon technologies.”

Keith Allott, Head of Climate Change at WWF-UK, said:

“All the science shows us that to keep below the critical threshold of 2°C global warming, countries like the UK need to cut emissions by at least 80 per cent by 2050. This report shows that it can be done and that it is affordable, provided we start now. The world is crying out for true leadership on climate change – and the Government can provide it by setting more ambitious targets in the Climate Change Bill.”

Dr Mark Avery, Conservation Director at the RSPB, said:

“The Government wants biofuels, barrages and wind farms largely irrespective of their potential for environmental harm. This report shows that we can cut emissions by 80 per cent without sacrificing wildlife and wildlife sites and that a cheap and effective start would be to use heat and power more efficiently in our buildings. A temperature rise of more than 2°C will cause untold damage and the UK can help us stay below this dangerous threshold by making 80 per cent, not 60 per cent, the legally binding target for carbon emission cuts."

Notes to Editors:

80% Challenge: Delivering a low carbon Britain is available to download free of charge.

2050 Vision: How can the UK play its part in avoiding dangerous climate change? by Matthew Lockwood and Jenny Bird is also published today.

ippr, WWF and the RSPB set out to investigate whether a target of 80 per cent can be achieved in the UK by domestic efforts alone and what the costs of doing so would be. Two approaches were used - the MARKAL-MACRO model, used by the Government for the 2007 Energy White Paper, and a model developed by Professor Dennis Anderson at Imperial College, employed for the Stern Review on the economics of climate change.

The MARKAL MACRO Model is supported by the International Energy Agency (IEA), and used by around 100 teams in over 30 countries. In the UK, the lead organisation running the model is the Policy Studies Institute (PSI). The Department for Trade and Industry (DTI) (now the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, DBERR) commissioned MARKAL modelling work from the PSI as input into the 2007 Energy White Paper.

The cost of meeting the 80 per cent target, including the UK’s share of international aviation emissions, ranges between approximately two and three per cent of GDP in 2050; though energy efficiency could markedly reduce these costs, to approximately 1.5 to 2 per cent of GDP. These estimates represent an upper limit on costs; and while the sums involved are large, the impact on growth of the whole economy over time is relatively minor. Costs would be significantly less if barriers to energy efficiency are addressed successfully. The costs of achieving the 80 per cent target are dwarfed by the costs of unmitigated climate change. Decarbonising the UK economy by 80 per cent would cost between one half and one tenth as much as doing nothing, based on Stern’s estimate that climate change damage costs would reduce global GDP by between 5 and 20 per cent.

The report followed the same assumptions and approaches used by the Government, but added some constraints that we consider environmentally essential. Unlike the Government the report included emissions from international aviation, with a multiplier to allow for non-carbon dioxide effects, in the targets and models. The report examined the implications of excluding new nuclear electricity generation and placed environmental safeguards on the use of biofuels and wind.

Last week the Government published a command paper setting out amendments to the Climate Change Bill, following public and parliamentary consultations. These included asking the Climate Change Committee to assess whether the target to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 60 per cent by 2050 should be toughened and what the implications of including other greenhouse gases (in addition to carbon dioxide) and emissions from international aviation and shipping in the target would be. Read more.

Contacts:

Matt Jackson, ippr senior media officer, 020 7339 0007 / 07753 719 289 / m.jackson@ippr.org

Alison Sutton, WWF-UK Deputy Head of Press, 01483 412388 / 07747 455256
ASutton@wwf.org.uk